One Truth Republic
The Sleeping Giant Awakens. China Asserts Its Dominance
Now that Xi Jinping has secured power at home he is turning his attention to the world stage.
And asserting the significant power that China holds.
Sensing increased instability due to the faltering economy and the war next door, Xi said China’s “security is increasingly unstable and uncertain”. A platform upon which to justify the an increased external projection of power.
Chinese curse
The first example of this is China telling Russia “No nukes”. Long time frenemies, Russia and China have shared an ideology that has kept them on somewhat neighborly terms, but increasingly Russia has been more a liability than an Asset.
Before the war Russia was #12 on their list of top trading partners, contributing only 2% to the distribution, whereas China is the #1 trading partner for Russia taking up 20% of the distribution.
So while connected ideologically, economically Russia is simply not in the same ball park. And Russia’s war is causing economic and militaristic problems for China. So it’s understandable that Xi Jinping would want to caution their neighbor to the north.
But it’s the second movement, Xi Jinping’s order to the Chinese military to prepare for war, that is concerning, and for three reasons.
The drumbeat of war
This is the obvious fear mongering that naturally increases more nationalism and loyalty to the CCP. This is an expected consequence of Xi shoring up power at home. It will increase nationalism and party loyalty within the Chinese populous. It will also draw the attention of Chinese expat’s who will need to decide what role they want to play in supporting their homeland.
The steady state of war
This is more concerning. What China is signaling is a future where the steady state of the world includes an additional watchdog. One who, like the US, militarily interfere’s with nations to its own achieve objectives. Often under the guise of “defense”. China will likely never stand down again. This increase in focus and funding on the military will see significant advances in Chinese military capabilities.
An increase in global conflict
The current global pandemic-driven inflation will result in increased instability around the world. Some countries will not return back to the way things were and that will result in conflict. But even more significantly is the general shift in economic might from the west to the east and specifically to China. The long term structural changes will make the west less affluent and china more so. A downward change in the economic outlook for a nation will result in an increase in nationalism and totalitarianism. We are already seeing the beginning of this around the world.
On top of all of this - we are seeing a China more focused on a global media and political control. From influencing elections in the US and Canada, to name a few, to the significant investments in western companies via their investment firms such as Tencent. Let’s not also forget the media juggernaut Tiktok and the mountains of data it is capturing from its participants world wide.
China is positioning itself for global dominance with the means to defend its global reach and position.
There is a curse, often attributed to China, that goes “may you live in interesting times”.
And what interesting times they are.
Dan Kunovich
